Strong exports, big questions in the corn market

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

For the past two months, my travels have taken me no farther than my basement, thanks to my cycling trainer and the Rouvy app. Partnering with a friend to share a subscription, I ride along to GoPro footage from around the globe — much better than staring at a blank wall. In my basement, I’ve cycled through six countries and U.S. National Parks like the Florida Everglades and Maine’s Acadia. These rides help prepare me for spring, just as producers finish tuning machinery for the fast-approaching planting season in Ohio and the Midwest, now just 20 days away.

Let’s take a deeper look at U.S. corn demand. The Feb. 10 USDA WASDE Report (supply and demand) in the U.S. corn table includes two demand numbers I want to dive into deeper. One that has been extremely puzzling for at least five months is the feed and residual line. It includes corn fed to U.S. animals, detailing 6.2 billion bushels of corn to be consumed. That number could be at least 400 million bushels too high. Why? Just two years ago, that number was 5.831 billion bushels, with more U.S. cattle than today. The U.S. cattle inventory has been shrinking for years, currently at a 50-year low.

How can fewer cattle eat more corn than just two years ago? Bear in mind that the number and its complexity were a paradox reached with the September 2025 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. Suddenly, the feed and residual line was now 200 million bushels below earlier estimates. It had a dramatic effect as corn ending stocks at the end of the marketing year on Aug. 31, 2025, were suddenly 1.532 billion bushels, up 207 million bushels from earlier estimates. Bottom line, it’s a number which bears watching in the months ahead.

Currently, U.S. corn ending stocks are estimated at 2.127 billion bushels for the current marketing year, which ends Aug. 31, 2026. If the corn fed to livestock is too high, it means that the ending stocks are too low. If corn ending stocks climb above 2.550 billion bushels, it will be troublesome and bearish for corn prices.

Now, the bright spot within the U.S. corn demand table: Exports are currently estimated to reach 3.3 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels from the January report. U.S. corn exports on Feb. 23 totaled 1.485 billion bushels shipped since the start of the marketing year on Sept. 1, 2025. Last year at the same time, the United States had shipped 1.02 billion bushels of corn. Year to date, U.S. corn exports are up 46% from last year. USDA had expected an increase of just 16% when the first estimates for this marketing year were released in May 2025.

U.S. corn exports continue to be a major boost for U.S. producers. Here’s why – corn exports in the monthly WASDE Report have increased three times, or a total of 325 million bushels, since September 2025. In addition, the Feb. 23 weekly export inspections report detailed 79 million bushels of US corn exports, the second-highest weekly number since Sept. 1, 2025.

U.S. corn exports are stellar. However, U.S. soybean exports lack that distinction. Producers are still very frustrated. U.S. soybean exports are down 32% year to date, while the USDA earlier projected a 16% decline. U.S. tariffs on China are to blame.

Currently, wheat appears to be trading on the fundamentals of wildfires and winter kill, corn is sideways with technicals holding support while not moving above resistance, and soybeans don’t know what to do. Soybean prices are now in a period of confusion following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling late last month that the Trump tariffs were illegal.

Next time, we will dive deeper into the U.S. biofuels policy for soybeans, along with the need for greater clarity moving forward. E15 for corn looks very doubtful in its current scenario.

Fun fact – markets don’t like confusion.

Thought for the day. “Confusion is a sign you’re on the edge of growth.” – Danielle LaPorte.