Navigating the rapids of the markets

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month I went whitewater rafting on the New River in West Virginia with a cycling friend and his daughter. It was my first time participating. Our guide was quite experienced and peppered our time on the river with tales of the scenery and the riverbanks. He also shared the name of each rapid we would be trekking through. There was even one shoreline rock called Africa, as its shape was part of the rock itself.

Numerous times, we would shoot the rapids going backward. If anyone tells you that you won’t get soaked while whitewater rafting if you don’t sit up front, they are not being truthful. I was the second person on one side, and I got soaked numerous times, even though the person in front of me didn’t get wet.

At this writing, reports indicate that corn planting will be suspended should all intended corn acres not be planted by the first week of June. If wet conditions persist into mid-June, soybeans will be readily planted. Bear in mind that the decision on what constitutes best farming practice for each producer’s operation rests with each producer.

In recent years, later-planted corn and soybeans have often yielded better than expected. One mantra often repeated during the past two growing seasons, in the drought years, was the surprise that yields were better than expected. The short answer often suggests that the improved genetics in recent years has been a major reason for those yields; while disappointing, they were far exceeding yields in similar past years.

The first weekend of May, frost was certainly a factor for many central Ohio producers. More often, we would see producers replanting more soybean acres than corn acres. Frost was also a concern for those Ohio producers who raised soft red winter wheat. Crop conditions at the heading stage indicated it was occurring 7 to 14 days earlier than normal. Yield concerns for wheat remain a factor this year. Some reports indicated that the fungicides used in the past to prevent yield drag were not being used in major proportions across Ohio this year. We will soon know in a few weeks what Ohio wheat yields will be: normal, above average, or just average.

Three USDA reports will be taking place this month. First is the June 11 WASDE Report (supply and demand). I would expect little change within this report. There could be changes in the demand numbers for the 2025-26 crop year. Those changes might be for corn used for ethanol, as the ethanol grind each week is no longer the impressive weekly numbers seen in the previous 3 to 5 months. Corn exports remain robust, with exports in the current 2025-26 marketing year, which ends on Aug. 31, with increasing in reports over the past six months. Second, there is the June 30 quarterly grain stocks report. Finally, there is also a planted acres report, which details acres of all field crops grown in the United States.

Grain prices rallied following a White House report on Sunday, May 17, which said China would buy U.S. crops, specifically up to 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans. Optics and details were scant, and prices soon retreated lower once again. Here’s a last half of May review of grain prices. December 2026 CBOT corn closed on May 18 at $4.98, up 17 cents.  On May 19, it peaked at $5.0075. On May 29, it closed at $4.75, 21 cents below its high point two weeks earlier. November 2026 CBOT soybeans closed on May 18 at $12.01, up 30 cents, peaking the following day at $12.075. On May 29, they closed at $11.90.

In the coming weeks, keep an eye out for weather news about a Super El Niño and an Omega high blocking weather pattern.

Thought for the day. “Everything good, everything magical, happens between the months of June and August.” – Jenny Han.