Will my production meet my grain marketing plan? Asking for a friend

By Wm. Bruce Clevenger, Ohio State University

A nervous feeling that farmers might experience is answering the question: Will my 2026 grain production meet my grain marketing plan? It’s easy to speculate about the effect of rainfall and temperatures on crop condition and yield potential. Did the delayed planting turn out to be good because the corn was not pollinating during the peak of the July heat dome? Did early planted soybeans turn out better or worse than expected despite the emergence conditions? What is the production impact of getting or missing August rainfall? Farm managers may be feeling more ups and downs than a tractor seat crossing chiseled wheat ground.

How much production have you marketed so far? Since I’m asking for a friend, let’s go back to step 1 of our pre-harvest marketing plan. Expected production was based on production history, and we might have used our crop insurance Actual Production History, or APH. It is a great number to use for grain marketing because it is specific to your own production and relies on a rolling average of past yields. What yield number did you use? Did you plant the acres that were planned for 2026? Great! What was your goal for the marketing plan? Did you buy an 80% crop insurance revenue policy and planned to have 70% of the anticipated insured production sold by July 1? Wow! That is a specific plan and looks strategic.

Let’s put some numbers into this scenario. Corn APH: 168 bushels per acre. Corn acres planted: 325 acres. Corn production expected: 54,600 bushels with a pre-harvest market goal of 70% = 38,200 corn bushels to be marketed pre-harvest. Soybean APH: 42 bushels per acre. Soybean acres planted: 475 acres. Soybean production expected: 19,950 bushels with a pre-harvest marketing goal of 70% = 13,965 soybean bushels to be marketed pre-harvest.

Did you market the bushels according to the plan? Review all the marketing contract positions taken during the pre-harvest marketing period so far. Did you reach your goal of bushels sold? In our scenario, that was 70%, but that will vary by farm manager and comfort level of managing risk in production and price. While you are looking at your contracts, consider calculating a weighted average price for the bushels under contract. The weighted average price achieved with the current contracts is an informative barometer for marketing additional bushels from the 2026 production.

How are things looking in the fields? Is the reality of production going to cause a pinch point in the marketing plan? The good news is, a competent marketing plan has a production cushion, aka risk management, built in. The scenario discussed so far in this article is sensitive to production risk by marketing 70% of the APH yield, therefore allowing actual yields to fall to 118 bushels per acre for corn and 29 bushels per acre for soybean before reaching the pinch point. With your experience and agronomy observations, will your corn and soybean acres produce the contracted bushels?

Not all marketing plans have a pre-harvest marketing goal of pricing 70% of the APH. Farm managers may be more comfortable with goals of 50% or less. By reviewing the actual marketing contracts and comparing them to estimates of 2026 yields, determine if there are any pricing opportunities yet before harvest for bushels that will realistically be produced in 2026. Any unpriced bushels at harvest will roll into the post-harvest marketing plan, which by nature is more tactical and must factor cost of storage, carry in the market, and quality and management costs.

The purpose of a grain marketing plan is to manage price and production risks to secure farm revenue. Grain marketing is not designed to price all grain at the market’s highest price, but it is designed to avoid pricing grain at seasonal market lows. Have a safe and healthy Summer.