USDA numbers bullish for wheat, negative for corn and beans

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Expect within 20 minutes of the noon report release for market’s focus to return to central U.S. and world weather. Traders are also expecting Brazil’s corn production to decline. 

Shortly after the report was released, new corn was up 2 cents, new soybeans up 4 cents, and wheat up 13 cents. Just before the report release, new corn was up 11 cents, new soybeans were up 12 cents cents, and wheat was up 7 cents. 

Corn and soybean yields should see little changes compared to the June report. Yield numbers should start to see changes reflecting weather conditions beginning with the August 12 report.

Today, expect market reaction to the numbers to be volatile and quick. Numbers that are a surprise could easily move corn and soybeans multiple dimes within 3 minutes.

The tables below detail US production, yields, and ending stocks:

USDA 2021-22 US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Production and Yield                                      (Production is Billion Bushels)                                                                                                             (Yield is Bu/Acre)
 USDAAverageRange of USDA
 July 12 EstimateEstimatesJune 10 
Corn Production15.16515.11514.863-15.27514.990
Corn Yield179.500178.800177.0-179.5179.500
Soybean Production4.4054.3944.335-4.4054.405
Soybean Yield50.80050.70050.000-50.80050.800
All Wheat1.7461.8471.724-1.9471.898
All Wheat Yield45.800  50.700
USDA 2020-21 US Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks (Billion Bushels)
 USDAAverageRange of USDA
 July 12 EstimateEstimatesJune 10
Corn1.0821.0881.000-1.2571.107
Soybeans0.1350.134.120-.1490.135
USDA 2021-22 US Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Ending Stocks (Billion Bushels)
 USDAAverageRange of USDA
 July 12 EstimateEstimatesJune 10 
Corn1.4321.4021.057-1.5421.357
Soybeans0.1550.148.120-.1650.155
Wheat0.6650.729.575-.8090.770

U.S. corn exports increased 50 million bushels. No changes in the U.S. soybean table.

The U.S. wheat yield was cut nearly 5 bushels per acre.

With this report, USDA used the June 30 NASS acres. In that report U.S. corn acres were projected at 92.692 million acres and soybeans 87.555 million acres.

This morning’s 6-14 day forecast has turned drier. Reports of good rains in those dry areas of the Midwest last week pushed corn and soybeans lower. Last week December CBOT corn was down 62 cents while November CBOT soybeans were down 69 cents. A lot of weather premium was removed from corn and soybeans the past 10 days.

According to The Hightower Report this morning, the short term weather outlook has 85% of the Midwest with very little stress for pollination.

Saturday Nebraska had straight line winds of 60 to 100 mph. That event is getting some attention this morning. In addition on Saturday, Iowa had a hail event.

Unharvested wheat in Ohio could very easily see quality issues become a real concern in the next two weeks. With recent rains, test weight will be dropping. Current weather forecasts for many parts of Ohio have thunderstorm activity for at least four days this week. Those forecasts are rapidly changing as yesterday afternoon thunderstorms were in the forecast for the next seven days across Ohio.  

Weather for the next 10 days and the U.S. corn pollination will be very critical for grain prices.

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