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By Doug Tenney
June is National Dairy Month. I proudly remember growing up on the family dairy farm in Knox County. The work ethic instilled in me was a pivotal force in my ongoing career. Take time to enjoy some ice cream at one of the Ohio county fairs taking place this month in Paulding, Pickaway, Harrison, Putnam, and Hamilton counties.
The weather will once again be a major force for this growing season. The corn and soybean planting season in Ohio got off to a terrific start in mid-April. The last two weeks of April, numerous Ohio regions had some of the best planting conditions in years. “Stellar” and “beautiful” were often used to report planting conditions. However, frequent rain events in the first two weeks of May led to troublesome and frustrating delays. Isolated parts of Ohio expected more rain events in the second half of May, pushing planting dates backward into June. At that same time, some producers were even concerned crops would not get planted. Crop insurance agents began to receive questions about prevented planting and potential payments in mid-May. Others began to compare current planting and weather conditions to 2012, when an eventual drought occurred.
Following the May 11 weekend, news of favorable U.S./China trade talks produced better than expected results. Price activity on May 12 was much higher for corn in the first hours of overnight trading activity. However, July 2025 CBOT corn closed that day at $4.48, down 2 cents, despite being up nine cents at the day’s high. July 2025 CBOT soybeans fared much better, closing at $1071 ¼, up 19 ½, and just 3 cents below the day’s high.
The price activity related to U.S./China trade talks is extremely headline-driven. That has been the pattern for months. Rallies of only a few hours will abruptly end if details are lacking in a reasonable time period.
The May 12 USDA Weekly Crop Progress Report detailed that U.S. corn was 62% and 47% last year. Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and North Dakota were all ahead of their respective 5-year planting progress anywhere from 7 to 25 points. Ohio was marginally just 2 points below the 5-year average planting pace. At this juncture, with the western cornbelt making rapid corn planting progress, weather rallies from hot and dry weather will be difficult to materialize this summer.
Producers will continue to focus on grain prices and their direction for the balance of 2025. Policy and weather will drive grains well into the summer months. The long-missing bio-fuels policy, as defined by 45Z, is sorely lacking, as both producers and soybean crushers remain confused. In addition, grain markets remain in a sideways and choppy pattern. It means bullish momentum is lacking, and we should not count on strong rallies to continue for days. Price rallies are selling opportunities. Those still holding unsold 2024 soybeans need to take advantage of multiple dime price rallies higher when they occur.
U.S. government budget cuts to NOAA, which produces a plethora of weather maps for both temperatures and precipitation, are already proving to be troubling. Due to those cuts, the American weather models are proving significantly less consistent than in past months and years. European or EU weather maps and forecasts will be monitored with greater intensity. Producers need to pay attention if they only follow the GFS or American models. It could easily be a significant problem this summer.
July 2025 CBOT wheat has had a vast range so far during its contract life. Its high since early 2024 was $7.55 while its contract low was $5.06 ¼ on May 13. Additionally, it made five new contract lows during late April and mid-May. The basis for Ohio’s new wheat crop ranges from 15 under to 50 under. The close on May 15 at $5.32 ¾ translates into flat price levels for new crop wheat, less than $5 for much of Ohio. Recently, top-end yields for Ohio have ranged from 80 to 120 bushels. The bottom line is that selling your wheat crop at today’s price levels is not profitable. Many Ohio producers are often trying to incorporate double-crop soybeans as an additional crop. Even fewer are baling and selling straw to push wheat as a profitable crop for their farming operation.
Thought for the day: “Spring always arrives when you need it.” – Martha Stewart.
This column is believed to be reliable and includes the author’s opinions. Unforeseen and changing circumstances can change price outlooks and direction. Neither Ohio’s Country Journal or Tenney assume liability for their use. Doug Tenney is a licensed commodity broker. Copyright 2025, Doug Tenney, all rights reserved. E-mail address is dtenney@ leistmercantile.com. Leist Mercantile specializes in marketing strategies and crop insurance coverage.
