Soybean speculations

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month, my friend Roger and I were on an early morning cycling adventure in Fairfield County.  Our ride began in the dark at least one hour before sunrise. I continue to be amazed by the beauty of the early rides, with the stars clearly visible, and then, within 30 minutes, the sky lightens and the stars disappear. As we began, I was suddenly bewildered that my front light was not working. Without Roger’s front light, it would have meant riding blindly into the dark, kind of like how U.S. farmers feel about the uncertainty of US/China trade deals and what they mean — or don’t mean — for soybean prices.

With the government shutdown still ongoing in late October, several reports essential to the grain industry remain on hold. These include the daily grain export sales updates, the weekly crop progress reports, and the CFTC’s weekly position reports, which track market activity among grain companies, commodity funds, and small traders. Those reports show whether traders are long or short in markets such as corn, soybeans, and wheat. The daily grain export sales system was created in the early 1970s after massive, undisclosed wheat sales to Russia left American farmers in the dark. Under the system, any sale of 100,000 tons or more must be reported by grain companies each business day.

Just days before I put this column to bed, we are finally seeing the first reports of China buying U.S. soybeans. It was certainly good news for American soybean farmers after months of epic price uncertainty. First reports from a leaked rumor on Bloomberg indicate that China bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, which will be shipped from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in late December and into January.

Market volatility was intense heading into the October 30 meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi. Intraday trading was driven largely by rumors, producing wild price swings. During the night session on October 30, January 2026 CBOT soybeans traded within a 35-cent range. Between 6 and 8 a.m., prices moved at a pace not seen in years — down 21 cents at one point, then 30 minutes later up 10 cents. 

Meanwhile, the September 2025 U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) soybean crush report caught many analysts off guard and was considered highly supportive for soybean prices. NOPA reported 197.9 million bushels of soybeans crushed during September, well above the average market expectation of 186.3 million bushels. Because NOPA members account for roughly 98% of the total U.S. soybean crush, their data often moves markets. On the day the report was released, September 16, January 2026 CBOT soybean futures closed four cents higher.

However, a closer look at USDA’s September 12 WASDE report offers some perspective. USDA projects total U.S. soybean crush for the 2025–26 marketing year at 2.555 billion bushels, which averages out to about 212 million bushels per month. That means September’s crush, while strong, still falls short of the pace needed to reach USDA’s annual forecast.

On October 29, the U.S. Federal Reserve wrapped up its meeting by announcing a quarter-point interest rate cut, a move widely anticipated by financial markets. Inflation remains a concern, partly due to tariffs on imported goods that continue to raise prices for U.S. consumers. Slowing job growth is adding pressure to the labor market. This was the Fed’s second rate cut of 2025. During the subsequent press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell cast doubt on the likelihood of another cut in December, despite market expectations for one.

Brazil’s weather currently does not hint at drought concerns. How many times have we seen concerns of a “Brazil drought” that never materialized? Both Brazil and Argentina are projected to harvest record soybean crops this season. One analyst suggested U.S. soybean acres could increase by 4 to 6 million acres in 2026. If realized, the South American record production, along with a jump in U.S. soybean acres will certainly be a huge problem for soybean prices.

Early October 30, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touted a United States-China trade deal in which China could secure 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this marketing year. Chatter followed, suggesting it was 12 million tons of U.S. ag products, not all soybeans. Markets like certainty, not non-binding details. Be wary of victory without details.

Thought for the day: “Details are the details, but they make the design.” – Charles Eames.