War and volatility shape the spring outlook

By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile

Last month, shortly after waking up, I was looking high and low for Jacob, my cat. Often, he is sleeping on my bed, and I know exactly where he is, but not that morning. His favorite place to sleep is a chair at the opposite end of the house. I slowly looked in numerous locations, eventually getting to his favorite chair. Still, no Jacob. Then, I retreated, thinking he must be hiding. And there he was, right in front of me as if to say, “Looking for somebody?” Here’s to hoping your spring planting efforts don’t have you scrambling for hours to connect with co-workers and secure supplies, as planting conditions can often be fleeting in the race to complete planting on time and efficiently.  

The U.S. war efforts, which began last month, have been on the minds of Ohio and U.S. producers for weeks. It has led to price rallies in corn, soybeans, and wheat during the first two weeks of March. On Feb. 27, May 2026, CBOT corn closed at $4.485, the week of March 9 was high at $4.76, while closing March 13 at $4.6725. May 2026 CBOT soybeans closed Feb. 27 at $11.7075, the week of March 9 was high at $12.3875, and closed March 13 at $12.2525. On Feb. 27, July 2026, CBOT wheat closed at $5.9875; its high for the week of March 9 reached $6.4975, and it closed March 13 at $6.1375.

The U.S. war with Iran continues at this writing. March 13 was the fourteenth day of the U.S./Israel war with Iran. The conflict has brought about significant uncertainty across many facets of our economy. Early in March, the U.S. stock market posted multiple days of losses exceeding 500 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Monday, March 9, crude oil prices displayed unprecedented price volatility with a range of $34 from high to low that day. Massive buying occurred on Friday, March 6, after traders who went home short for the weekend faced huge losses. Their buying frenzy from Sunday evening to Monday was gut-wrenching as traders closed out those short positions at a loss.

Price volatility has been off the charts, with daily ranges often much wider than those seen earlier in 2026. If the conflict continues in the coming weeks, expect grain prices to reach steeper peaks and have deeper valleys than in the past six months.

Producers are asking their fertilizer suppliers if they will get the product they have already paid for. Typically, producers are heavy buyers of next year’s inputs in the last four months of the calendar year prior to the next spring planting season. Those pre-paid inputs are often purchased at a discount compared to buying inputs just prior to the spring planting season. Few producers have the capabilities to hold all purchased inputs on the farm months prior to planting.

Those producers who depend on fertilizer facilities to deliver needed inputs just prior to planting could easily be at risk of wondering whether they will receive the inputs in a timely manner. Shipping delays could easily be monumental in the weeks ahead.

Producers need to ask suppliers if the inputs they purchased are on-site. If not on site, where are they? Those producers who have not yet purchased this year’s inputs face two sharp financial consequences. First, what is the added cost compared to buying months earlier? Second, are inputs even available?

U.S. corn exports marketing year to date are 1.622 billion bushels compared to the same time last year at 1.146 billion bushels, an increase of 41% above last year. USDA had projected a 15% increase. U.S. soybean exports for this marketing year are 995.2 million bushels. Last year it was 1.414 billion bushels. Soybean exports are down 29%. USDA had projected a 16% decline.

I know I missed the opportunity to share my thoughts on the lack of a US biofuels policy. I kicked the can down the road. Ha ha. The bizarre price volatility in the first two weeks of March, in my mind, was suddenly more important.

Brazil is behind normal in harvesting soybeans, resulting in delays in planting second-crop corn. Brazil’s diesel fuel supplies are tight as soybeans move to export facilities. Cargill in Brazil has paused buying soybeans from farmers due to stricter requirements from China.

Grains in the last few weeks have been trading as an energy component. That realization adds incomparable uncertainty.

Thought for the day. “There are no gardening mistakes, only experiments. – Janet Kilburn Phillips.