On May 8, President Donald J. Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a new trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom.
According to the White House fact sheet, the deal will significantly expand U.S. market access into the U.K., creating a $5 billion opportunity for new exports for U.S. farmers, ranchers, and producers.
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) praised the new bilateral trade agreement that increases access for American agricultural products to the U.K., including ethanol.
“This is great news,” said Illinois farmer and NCGA President Kenneth Hartman Jr. “We applaud President Trump and his administration for brokering this deal, and we encourage them to continue to include corn, corn ethanol, and corn co-products in future bilateral agreements with other countries.”
During the announcement, Trump officials indicated that tariffs on U.S. ethanol will be reduced to zero. According to the White House fact sheet, this covers $700 million worth of U.S.… Continue reading
I have received requests for an explanation of the corn futures delivery process. So, I contacted my good friend Joe Rich of O’Bryan Commodities to help me summarize this complex process.
The delivery process is a big driver of the spreads between futures month contracts. It also determines how much carry is needed in the market or if supply is limited and warrants an inverse to pull the grain out of storage. The delivery process can also help trigger cancellations of sales contracts, potentially in tight market years. Large carries or inverses can also provide indications of futures price direction.
History
Officials set up the current delivery process many decades ago when corn exports were nearly 30% of total demand. For 40 years, U.S. exporters shipped a relatively consistent number of bushels, but over the last 10 years, export volume has climbed by about 50%. Despite that growth, exports now account for only about 15% of total corn usage in the United States.… Continue reading
The corn market doesn’t seem concerned with the possibility of tighter stocks, which may mean there is more supply than the USDA is currently estimating.
One indication of this is that both wheat and sorghum’s basis values in the southwestern corn belt are much lower than usual for this time of year. This is also pulling down corn’s basis value there, which is unusual. Typically, the southwestern corn belt pulls corn to it this time of year, it rarely pushes it away like we are seeing now.
The ample wheat stocks from last harvest are likely causing some of this. Plus, current weather conditions are average to slightly above normal for the next wheat crop compared to the previous 5 seasons. This suggests wheat stocks will likely stay the same or increase slightly in the next marketing year. This could put downward pressure on prices and keep wheat in the feed ration longer at the expense of corn.… Continue reading
National yields are always highly debated within the trade from when they are first published in the May USDA WASDE report until they are nearly finalized in the January report. It makes sense, because yields are the biggest driver of supply and the quickest way for prices to rally.
Each year, the USDA publishes a trend line yield that seems too high for some market participants. Often, it’s because the yield estimate requires a new record or a tying of a previous record yield.
I expect the USDA will start the year in May with a national yield of 181 bushels per acre. For one, it would be near the 50-year straight-trendline yield. Two, it’s the estimate the USDA Economic Forum showed in their February report, and the USDA has used the forum’s yield estimate as their starting point for the last few years.
By Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University
Tighter cow numbers over the past few years have led to smaller calf crops and fewer cattle to sell. According to data from the USDA-AMS National Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary, the number of feeder and stocker cattle sold during the first 14 weeks of 2025 totaled 3.72 million head which was 9.5% below the number sold during the same period in 2024. Receipts so far in 2025 are down 9% year-to-date when compared to the 4-year average from 2020-2023.
2018 was the peak in sales for the current cattle cycle as shown in the chart above. The 2024 total was 11% below 2018 and 4% below 2023. It is still early in 2025, but the current trend, and general lower cattle supply, suggest that 2025 sales will be lower again. This dataset includes auction, direct, and video/internet sales reported to USDA.… Continue reading
For years, Cindy and I celebrated our April birthdays only 4 days apart. For decades, we stayed at the same bed and breakfast in Asheville, NC, even if our visit was weeks away from our actual birthdays. This year, the annual trek to Asheville was without her, yet I still sang Neil Diamond’s “Sweet Caroline” at the top of my lungs as I crossed the mountaintop border into North Carolina. My bicycle riding this year on the Blue Ridge Parkway involved riding twelve miles and then turning around. I missed her attentive eye keeping me safe, waving as she passed, patiently waiting at a pull-off to make sure I was really making progress. Then, repeating over and over. Cindy’s birthday celebration took place in a vastly different fashion. I was determined to do the things she loved to do: a visit to her favorite greenhouse to buy flowers she marveled for their colors; lunch at Skyline where she relished the black bean burrito, thinking I was nuts to eat a small coney with onions and cheese, (it’s a secret – I ate both); a visit to Wagnalls Memorial Library to gaze at its 100 plus-year-old stone structure and bring home a book; topped with a Chai latte at a Lancaster coffee shop.… Continue reading
The USDA released their updated supply and demand estimates after the stocks report nearly two weeks ago. Carryout was tighter than many in the trade were expecting. I was anticipating a more significant decrease in corn used for animal feed to offset any export increase. With what we know today, most in the trade seem to find the increased exports number reasonable.
I feel that the decreased carryout should have caused corn to rally at least 10 cents immediately after the report was released; however, it only went up a few cents. And while it did close another 7 cents higher on Friday, I thought it would have been a lot more. Friday’s rally was probably due to the dropping of the U.S. dollar, making U.S. exports more affordable globally.
I was also surprised the May to July spread didn’t tighten up and instead widened more than before the report. If supply is as tight as the USDA suggests, the spread should have narrowed as end users look to shore up more supply. This… Continue reading
Jacob recently knocked a 20 oz plastic tub of cat treats from the kitchen table onto the floor. Its resultant noise was my first clue. As I approached the unexpected scene of cat treats scattered everywhere, both Jacob and Lizzie were focused with ferocious intensity, eating as fast as they could and not looking up, just as producers will be focused in the weeks ahead on planting efforts. Meals will be short, and hours will be long for Ohio and U.S. producers as they battle weather and prices to maximize yields and revenue for 2025.
“Be prepared for volatility,” is a quote from the NBC morning consumer report last month. It followed the March 19 U.S. Fed meeting when the announcement of no cuts in U.S. interest rates was not a surprise. The NBC report detailed consumers should expect interest rates to stay high with no cuts in sight.… Continue reading
By Tracy Turner, technical editor and writer for the Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences
Ohio’s agricultural producers could soon be feeling the sting of escalating global trade tensions, as U.S. tariff policies evolve and foreign retaliation ramps up.
Ian Sheldon, a professor in The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES) and holder of The Andersons Endowed Chair in Agricultural Marketing, Trade, and Policy in the CFAES Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, is closely monitoring the unfolding situation.
He’ll present his insights on April 18 during the Ohio Food Policy Network’s virtual convening in a talk titled, “Current U.S. Trade Policy: What Impact?” Sheldon, an internationally recognized expert in agricultural economics, will offer insight into how the rapidly evolving tariff environment could affect farmers’ bottom lines.
At the heart of the conversation: the impact of newly proposed and implemented tariffs by the U.S.,… Continue reading
Traders were looking for increases in corn and soybean oil demand in the April 10, 2025, WASDE report. U.S. corn exports increased 100 million bushels, while soybean crush increased 10 million bushels. U.S. soybean oil exports increased by 500 million pounds. There is no change in South American corn or soybean production in either Argentina or Brazil.
After the report was released, corn was up 8 cents, soybeans were up 14 cents, and wheat was down 1 cent. Prior to the noon report, corn was up 3 cents, soybeans up 10 cents, and wheat down 3 cents.
U.S. corn ending stocks were 1.465 billion bushels, last month 1.540 billion bushels, and the average trade estimate was 1.510 billion bushels. U.S. soybean ending stocks were 375 million bushels, and last month was 380 million bushels, with the average trade estimate of 379 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks were 846 million bushels, and last month’s was 819 million bushels, while the average trade estimate was 825 million bushels.… Continue reading
Grain and livestock markets closed higher on Wednesday as major changes in tariff policy sparked a sharp midday rebound.
President Donald Trump announced he is pausing reciprocal tariffs on most countries for 90 days as negotiations take place, while immediately increasing Chinese tariffs to 125%, citing China’s “lack of respect” in trade matters.
Trump posted the following on social media:
“Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately.
For months I have been trying to find Belle-View pickles. They have a sweet chip which pairs splendidly with ham salad. No luck in my local stores. I even braved the throngs at Walmart. Growing frustration increased. I asked friends if they were familiar with that brand. One friend offered this suggestion, “Just go back where you found them.” My reply, “I found them in my refrigerator and didn’t buy them.” Last month, my sister-in-law, Karen, greeted me with a huge surprise, handing me two jars of the missing pickles. Success at last. My hunt for pickles was likely comparable to your hunt this upcoming spring planting for parts you know you have on somewhere, but can you find them when needed?
Ever see a dog chase his tail? No matter how hard he tries, there is great difficulty in catching and keeping ahold of his tail.… Continue reading
Currently, there are a lot of upcoming variables that could have a big impact on the market.
Chinese Built Ships and Port Fees
Perhaps the biggest concern facing grain trading participants is the potential $1 million fee on any Chinese built ships docking at an American port. While this could threaten US imports, it is also scaring many bulk commodity exporters.
Several trade groups, from coal to corn, will be in Washington D.C. next week to express concern that this could stifle American exports. The coal industry is already having issues lining up vessels after May. If this fee is enacted, it could make US grains less competitive globally.
Right now, US corn is the most competitively priced in the world, which is keeping a floor under prices. However, any change in shipping costs could push US grain prices lower and affect the global grain supply and feed demand.… Continue reading
With Easter and Passover both coming soon consumers may have experienced some shock as egg prices set recent records. The combination of inflation and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) caused egg prices to rise more than 350% per dozen compared to this time last year. In fact, some restaurants raised menu prices just to keep up with the cost of eggs.
Egg prices and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)
Eggs are considered an inelastic good. This means that even when egg prices change, consumers still buy about the same amount of eggs. Unlike other products, in many applications such as baking, eggs don’t have good substitutes. They are also a healthy — and typically the most affordable — source of protein, which makes them desirable even if prices go up. This relatively unchanging demand for eggs means that supply factors can have a big impact on egg prices.… Continue reading
Some market participants were disappointed to see no changes to corn demand in the March supply and demand report last Tuesday. I suspect the USDA is waiting until the March 31st stocks report to see what remaining supply is left in the US to make any changes to demand estimates.
USDA Updates Sorghum Demand
The USDA did acknowledge a big issue with sorghum this month. Exports decreased 70-million bushels and feed demand increased 50-million bushels. This should be something to keep an eye on as sorghum is a direct feed competitor to corn.
While many market participants think the corn export estimate should be increased, this 50-million-bushels of sorghum added to feed may offset some corn for feed if corn exports are increased. Add to that, the increasing wheat carryout and the 35-million-bushels of wheat that has already been added to feed year over year and there is potential that most of any increase in corn exports will be offset by decreases in feed.… Continue reading
May corn started last week down 15 cents, likely due to the tariffs being implemented on the U.S.’s 3 largest trading partners. Friday values rallied on the news that tariffs on Mexico would be lifted for at least a month. This helped May corn finished the week where it closed out last week, but that is still down almost 50 cents from last month.
December corn closed the week at about the same level as the previous week too. This still leaves new crop corn down about 25 cents from the calendar year’s high. Some farmers have been asking, “are the highs for the year already in?”
History says the highs for the year probably haven’t happened
While it’s impossible to know for certain, the following provides some historical insight. The chart below shows which calendar month, in the year the crop was grown, that the December contract hit its high for the last 35 years.… Continue reading
No changes in U.S. corn or soybean demand. Ethanol and corn exports unchanged. Soybean crush and exports unchanged. U.S. wheat exports cut 15 million bushels.
Traders were looking for corn used for ethanol to increase at least 10 million bushels. Last month USDA pegged that number at 5.5 billion bushels. In addition, U.S. corn exports could also increase 10 million bushels. Feed, seed, and industrial corn usage comprise the largest single corn demand line at 6.890 billion bushels. U.S. corn production last year was 14.867 billion bushels. Little demand changes were expected for U.S. soybeans.
Potential hot spots for a surprise would include soybean and corn production in Brazil and Argentina with both excessive rains and heat extremes the last three weeks. Brazil received the rains and Argentina received limited heat extremes.
After the report was released, corn was up 1 cent, soybeans unchanged, and wheat down 6 cents.… Continue reading
The nation’s farm organizations shared concerns following the Trump Administration announcement of new tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada and an increase in the tariff rate assessed on certain goods from China.
President Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada took effect just after midnight in the early morning hours of March 4. Canada responded swiftly with plans to impose 25% tariffs on nearly $100 billion of U.S. imports over two tranches, and Mexico’s president said it would also soon retaliate. The U.S. added an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports overnight, compounding the 10% export tax imposed on China a month ago and existing duties on the country’s goods. China’s comeback was quick: 10% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans and additional actions that limit market access.
Meat Export Federation (USMEF) President and CEO Dan Halstrom expressed disappointment in the lack of agreements to avoid or postpone tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as the tariff increase on goods from China.… Continue reading
In 8 trading sessions, the corn market has lost nearly 50 cents per bushel. May corn is now trading similar levels to right before the January USDA report was published.
After the January report, basis weakened throughout the U.S., while the March/May futures spread widened. These are common signs of an upcoming futures value correction, which is what ultimately happened.
This means anyone who went long futures, on or after the report day, and did not liquidate their positions, are likely upside down and losing money on their trades.
Can corn go back up?
Export demand has been great, so this price decrease should keep U.S. corn competitive globally until mid-summer. So far, US farmers have sold nearly 75% of their 2024 crop to end users and commercial grain companies. For that remaining 25%, I expect farmers will wait to see how weather is impacting the new crop in July.… Continue reading
Last month I was a first-time attendee at the annual meeting of National Association of Conservation Districts held in Salt Lake City, Utah. Little did I know that my first fast-paced snow tubing efforts would continue in both the general sessions and the breakout sessions across a wide variety of conservation topics. What a whirlwind for 5 days!
The Trump unknowns continue to be a massive factor for volatility for the grain markets. While you may not like it, it is not going away anytime soon. Federal government jobs across agriculture and other sectors are in limbo with executive orders and press releases continuing to spew out. Programs across broad industry sectors are potentially affected. In addition, layoffs at ADM, Cargill, and other suppliers and vendors have producers facing a huge vacuum of information sources ahead of upcoming planting activity in Ohio and the nation.
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