The December WASDE Report, or the supply-and-demand report, was released on Tuesday. Typically, this report has few, if any, changes, as USDA often takes the November report, changes the date to December, and calls it done. Some call it a “ditto”, others suggest USDA “punted” and made no changes.
Keep in mind that neutral soybeans will be bearish soybean prices when there is nothing published that is friendly for soybeans.
On the supply side, U.S. corn and soybean production and yields were unchanged.
On the demand side, corn exports increased 125 million bushels. Corn for ethanol was unchanged. Soybean exports and crush were unchanged.
There were zero changes for South America estimates for either corn or soybean production.
After the report was released, corn was up 3 cents, soybeans down 6 cents, and wheat down 2 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was up 1 cent, soybeans down 5 cents, and wheat down 2 cents.… Continue reading
Mid-October 2025 marked the 10th anniversary of attending a central Ohio moldboard plowing day for garden tractors. At least 20 participants from Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee took part. The group was made up mostly of John Deere tractors, with Cub Cadet, Wheel Horse, and Allis-Chalmers models balancing out the remainder of the field. Plowing conditions were overwhelmingly better than expected. Rain the week before seemed to erase the drought conditions of August, at least for this event.
Cindy never said the word out loud, but I think she probably deemed the whole thing “silly.” Even so, she always packed a delicious lunch and encouraged me to have a great time and stay as long as I wished. I would describe the day with two words: “fun” and “energizing.” It was fun because I could be outside in all kinds of weather while learning even more about how to fine-tune my plowing results.… Continue reading
By Raphael Galo, Head of Agribusiness and Structured Operations at A7 Capital
For the U.S. producer looking at the 2025-26 crop after USDA’s WASDE reports resumed, the outlook for soybeans and corn in South America still appears “comfortable” in the official numbers, but once you dig into weather, costs and domestic demand, the safety margin looks much thinner than the headlines suggest.
In Brazil, soybean numbers keep climbing. CONAB’s second crop survey projects a record area of about 49 million hectares (+3.6% from the previous crop), with production estimated at 177.6016 million tons in 2025-26, slightly below the 171.4817 million tons of the 2024-25 cycle. USDA’s November WASDE, in turn, works with a Brazilian crop of 175 million tons, domestic use close to 63.3 million and exports around 112.5 million, cementing the country’s role as the world’s main supplier. These figures rest on still-reasonable conditions in Brazil’s Central-West, but behind them sits a more complex weather mosaic: climate reports point to a La Niña influence from late 2025 onward, with a tendency toward above-normal rainfall in parts of the Central-West and North, but a risk of irregular or below-normal volumes in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina and Paraguay, along with temperatures consistently above historical averages.… Continue reading
Last week, the USDA report showed the soybean carryout slightly smaller, driven by a yield reduction and increased crush demand. Some market participants are saying this may mean better bean prices down the road.
However, we may need to look deeper at export demand before getting too bullish on beans. As this Grain Stats chart shows, export movement has been painfully slow compared to last year and the 5-year average.
The USDA is now estimating export demand at the lowest level in 12 years, and it’s uncertain if that is even attainable.
The market is hoping the late-October trade deal will bring another 12 million metric tons (MMT) of additional demand from China by the end of January. So far, though, China has purchased less than 3 MMT since then, and none in the last few days.
Plus, when soybeans are above $11 futures, they are more expensive compared with Brazil’s beans through winter. … Continue reading
On Nov. 14, the USDA released its November WASDE and Crop Production reports.
The main takeaway is that the USDA expects a big crop with a 186-bushel-per-acre yield. However, the market remains skeptical and seems to be trading at a yield of around 182 to 183. The market is acting like it doesn’t want to be fooled like last year, when the USDA reported a massive 3.8-bushel yield drop in January.
Considering this year’s massive disease issues in the western Corn Belt, the market’s cautious approach makes sense. However, the surprise stocks increase in the Sept. 30 report suggests that last year’s final yield decrease in the January report was probably too much. And that could also mean the market’s belief of a big yield drop this January might not happen.
Feed and residual
On Friday, the USDA made changes to the 2024 crop’s feed and residual estimate to account for the increase in stocks from the Sept.… Continue reading
Ohio Ag Net’s Joel Penhorwood talks with Dr. Ian Sheldon at the 2025 Ohio State Agricultural Outlook and Policy Conference for one of the most detailed and eye-opening breakdowns of global trade we’ve shared to date.
Dr. Sheldon unpacks the unprecedented across-the-board U.S. tariff increases, how current legal battles could reshape trade policy, and what retaliation, especially from China, means for American agriculture.
The conversation goes into soybean export uncertainty, Brazil’s rising competitive edge, how Chinese state-owned companies are influencing purchase commitments, and why North American trade through the USMCA could become the next major flashpoint.
Table of Contents: 0:00 – U.S. tariffs: where things stand now 1:30 – Why these tariffs are unprecedented 3:50 – Legal fight: can the President impose these tariffs? 7:10 – What the Supreme Court may decide 9:10 – What happens next if tariffs are struck down 11:00 – How China retaliated—impact on U.S. soybeans 13:20 – China’s purchase commitments & skepticism 15:55 – Brazil’s rising competitiveness 20:30 – Potential export losses for U.S.… Continue reading
Last month, my friend Roger and I were on an early morning cycling adventure in Fairfield County. Our ride began in the dark at least one hour before sunrise. I continue to be amazed by the beauty of the early rides, with the stars clearly visible, and then, within 30 minutes, the sky lightens and the stars disappear. As we began, I was suddenly bewildered that my front light was not working. Without Roger’s front light, it would have meant riding blindly into the dark, kind of like how U.S. farmers feel about the uncertainty of US/China trade deals and what they mean — or don’t mean — for soybean prices.
With the government shutdown still ongoing in late October, several reports essential to the grain industry remain on hold. These include the daily grain export sales updates, the weekly crop progress reports, and the CFTC’s weekly position reports, which track market activity among grain companies, commodity funds, and small traders.… Continue reading
The November WASDE Report (supply and demand) will be scrutinized beyond measure by producers, analysts, and traders alike. Has USDA had enough time to get U.S. corn and soybean production and yields accurate? This report had been scheduled to take place on November 10. However, the U.S. government shut down of 43 days delayed this report taking place timely. Remember that shutdown eliminated a WASDE report for October.
Corn exports up 100 million bushels, corn for ethanol unchanged. Soybeans exports and soybean crush unchanged.
After the report was released, corn was down 7 cents, soybeans down 14 cents, and wheat down 8 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was unchanged, soybeans down 2 cents, and wheat up 2 cents.
U.S. corn production was estimated at 16.752 billion bushels, September was 16.814 billion bushels. The average trade estimate was 16.557 billion bushels. U.S. soybean production was estimated at 4.253 billion bushels, September was 4.301 billion bushels.… Continue reading
While recent headlines suggesting changes in U.S. tariffs on South American beef imports are raising eyebrows and nudging markets, the fundamentals of supply and demand will remain intact for beef producers in Arkansas and elsewhere for the foreseeable future, cattle market experts said Monday.
On Oct. 16, U.S. President Donald J. Trump suggested a plan to lower beef prices for American consumers was in the works. The proposal involves expanding the tariff rate quota on Argentinian beef from 20,000 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons, said James Mitchell, extension economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
He said that while this would quadruple the amount of Argentinian beef entering the U.S. market, it would still be a minuscule portion of the overall U.S. beef market. A September report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast U.S. beef imports at 5.4 billion pounds — just over 18 percent of total U.S.… Continue reading
Last month, my cycling friend Roger and I were enjoying a Saturday morning bike ride in Hocking County on Big Pine Road. We’ve ridden this route several times a year for the past eight years, passing the same small, run-down barn just a few feet off the road. It always has an open-air pen with a handful of hogs, and, without fail, a terrifying, nose-curling, unforgettable stench.
I was a few feet ahead of Roger, hesitant to believe it might not happen this time. I thought to myself, Wait for it, wait for it. And suddenly, while entirely expected, Roger painfully announced, “And there it is.”
That phrase feels fitting for farmers with the rollercoaster of trade policy especially when it comes to China. After months of waiting in anticipation, an agreement has finally been made. And there it is.
By Tracy Turner, Ohio State College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences
A high-stakes Supreme Court case about presidential tariff authority could dramatically influence U.S. trade policy, with immediate repercussions for Ohio farmers — especially soybean producers already facing tight margins during harvest.
In a recent legal and economic analysis, Is There a Legal Basis for ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs?, Ian Sheldon, professor and holder of The Andersons Endowed Chair in Agricultural Marketing, Trade and Policy at The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences (CFAES), examines the constitutional challenges surrounding the tariffs and their broader implications for trade and domestic agriculture.
“The Court of International Trade ruled that imposition of the tariffs exceeded the authority delegated to the president by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA),” Sheldon said. “That decision was affirmed on Aug. 29 by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit.… Continue reading
President Donald J. Trump is facing pushback from U.S. cattle producers after suggesting the United States could import beef from Argentina to bring down prices for American consumers.
Speaking aboard Air Force One on Oct. 19, Trump told Associated Press reporters, “We would buy some beef from Argentina. If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down.” The comment comes as part of broader efforts to control inflation, with beef prices staying elevated due to widespread drought, a low cattle inventory, and reduced imports from Mexico due to the New World screwworm outbreak.
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) sharply criticized the idea, warning that opening the door to additional Argentine beef would harm U.S. producers without delivering real savings to consumers.
“NCBA’s family farmers and ranchers have numerous concerns with importing more Argentinian beef to lower prices for consumers. This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” said NCBA CEO Colin Woodall.… Continue reading
The American Farm Bureau Federation last week sent letters to President Donald Trump and Congressional leaders to emphasize the severe economic pressures facing America’s farmers and ranchers. Falling crop prices, skyrocketing expenses and trade disputes are creating conditions that are too much for farm families to bear.
“Across the country, farms are disappearing as families close the gates on the farms tended by their parents, grandparents and generations before them,” wrote AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “Every farm lost takes with it generations of knowledge, community leadership and the heartbeat of local economies: fewer kids in schools, fewer trucks at the grain elevator, fewer small businesses that keep rural towns alive. As those farms disappear, so too does America’s food independence: our ability to feed ourselves without relying on foreign supply chains.”
Prices paid for crops have fallen off a cliff since 2022, and U.S. agriculture has experienced a trade deficit during the same time period.… Continue reading
“Get yourself in a comfortable position,” reminded our yoga instructor.
“But I’m doing yoga, and all of this is uncomfortable,” was my immediate thought. I realized I was not built for this activity, which followed a 50-mile morning ride with friends as we cycled in Tennessee.
I glanced at the women I had been riding with, who talked me into that yoga session. They were not struggling; instead, they were deeply focused in their yoga session—just as producers are entrenched in all their efforts and activities to harvest this year’s corn and soybeans efficiently before the potential of any prolonged rain.
The U.S. government shutdown began on Oct. 1 as Congress failed to pass a budget resolution. It meant the cash drawer was empty, and Congress needed to fill the till again. When is Congress going to pass a real budget and quit playing all the games that accompany their silliness?… Continue reading
Overall, USDA’s September 2025 net farm income forecast projects a mixed outlook for farmers. Net farm income, a key measure of profitability, is forecast at $179.8 billion in 2025. This is an increase of $52 billion, or 40.7%, from $127.8 billion in 2024, but about $300 million lower than USDA’s February forecast of $180.1 billion.
Livestock and crop receipt disparity The forecast showed significant disparities between livestock and crop receipts. On one hand, total animal/animal product cash receipts are forecast to increase by $30 billion, or 11.2%, from $268.6 billion in 2024 to $298.6 billion in 2025. On the other hand, cash receipts from crop sales are forecasted to decrease by $6.1 billion, or 2.5%, from $242.7 billion in 2024 to $236.6 billion in 2025.… Continue reading
Last month I observed the graveside service for the father of an Amanda cycling friend. Driving to the cemetery, I was reminded again of the respect of Ohio drivers, as all ten cars or more that were traveling in the opposite direction had stopped along the road while our procession obviously moved very slowly. It made one proud of Ohio and its drivers that day. Is this a typical occurrence in your area of Ohio?
Corn continues to be in a two-month sideways pattern as December 2025 CBOT corn has been stuck in a 32-cent trading range since late July. The low was $3.92, which took place with the August 12 WASDE Report. That report was a huge bearish surprise for corn when the USDA estimated the U.S. yield at 188.8 bushels per acre, up from the previous month’s yield of 181. However, corn prices did not continue to be lower for days following that report.… Continue reading
On Tuesday, Sept. 30, the USDA released the Quarterly Grains Stocks report. It also detailed the final 2024 U.S. corn and soybean production, where very few changes were expected. If you are looking for the WASDE Report (supply and demand report), you will have to wait until October 9 for its release.
According to the report, U.S. grains stocks as of Sept. 1, 2025 are:
Corn stocks were 1.53 billion bushels. The average estimate was 1.337 billion bushels, and corn stocks last year were 1.763 billion bushels.
Soybean stocks were 316 million bushels. The average trade estimate was 323 million bushels, compared to 342 million bushels last year.
All wheat stocks were 2.12 billion bushels. The average trade estimate was 2.043 billion bushels, compared to 1.992 billion bushels last year.
Just after the reports were released, corn was down 5 cents, soybeans were down 5 cents, and wheat was down 8 cents.… Continue reading
Net farm income in the United States is projected to reach $177 billion in 2025, a sharp increase from $128 billion in 2024. This is according to the latest update of the annual U.S. farm income and consumer food price report by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri’s College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources.
Record cattle prices and large one-time government payments have boosted 2025 income, but declines in crop prices and projected reductions in future government support raise concerns about the outlook for 2026.
“Despite strong income this year, much of the gain is temporary,” Pat Westhoff, director of FAPRI, said. “As emergency payments dry up and crop prices remain weak, we project a $31 billion decline in farm income next year.”
The report incorporates data available in August 2025, including United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop production estimates and economic forecasts from S&P Global.… Continue reading
While supply remains uncertain, attention should probably also focus on the demand side. The USDA is projecting record corn production for 2025 but also record demand.
Ethanol demand
According to USDA data, next year’s ethanol demand is estimated to match the highest production ever produced.
Low-priced corn should keep ethanol production profitable. If overseas demand remains strong, then the USDA’s forecast probably is attainable.
Export demand
U.S. corn exports set a record last year, and the USDA is projecting another record this year.
Lower prices are helpful in gaining market share. Add to that a decrease in world corn stocks, and another record year for exports seems possible.
My only concern with export potential is that the three largest corn producers (Brazil, China, and the US) are all expected to have record crops.… Continue reading
The USDA’s September Supply and Demand Report made only minor adjustments. Planted corn acreage was raised slightly while yield estimates were trimmed. Higher export projections offset the additional bushels, leaving carryout nearly unchanged from last month.
The market responded by trading higher, likely because many traders think the yield estimate is still too high, given the widespread disease pressure and some late-season dryness throughout the United States. Yield estimates will remain relatively uncertain for another month until harvest results become more available, and the USDA provides updated numbers in next month’s report.
Early yield results Early harvest results I’m seeing seem inconclusive. Some farmers along the Nebraska-Kansas line are reporting yields 5% to 10% above normal. However, other farmers only a few miles away say yields are 5% to 10% lower than average, especially when fungicide wasn’t applied.
Other farmers are telling me their yields on fields that were treated for disease will likely produce far less than they expected only a month ago.… Continue reading
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